The Art of the Underdog

Every March, a low seed wrecks millions of brackets, and every April everyone forgets what made that team dangerous. For “The Art of the Underdog” I analyzed the key characteristics of March Madness Cinderellas, specifically the statistical fingerprints that upset-makers share before anyone knows their name.

The interesting methodological problem is survivorship: it’s easy to describe past Cinderellas, harder to find the traits that predict rather than merely decorate an upset run. The piece digs into which characteristics actually carry signal.

Writing it taught me the value of a question people already care about: nobody needs convincing that bracket-busters matter, so all the analytical effort goes into the answer instead of the setup.